Election latest: Reform move within point of Tories in new poll - as Farage says bus attack 'affront to democracy' (2024)

Next up we have Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer who insists there is a "story" to the Tories' manifesto - one of Conservatives "standing by people when they needed help".

She points to COVID, Ukraine, and the energy crisis, and insists the government has now "turned the economy around" and can "set out a plan for the future" - namely "tax cuts, not tax rises" and secure borders.

Economy 'starting to turn a corner'

Sophy Ridgepoints out people don't feel the economy is doing better in their own pockets - and points toEd Conway's analysis of the tax burden still rising (see 19.17 post).

Ms Frazer adjusts slightly and says instead the economy is "starting to turn a corner", with falling inflation as an example, and that debt is "projected to fall".

And she says on the doorstep people are "starting to see" the change and feel better off.

But despite continued pressing from Sophy to "be honest" that taxes will still be going up overall, albeit slower, the minister stands by the tax cuts her party has announced and says the burden will reduce in time.

"It is going to come down 1% year-on-year from where it was projected to be," she adds.

Ourdeputy political editorSam Coateshas been out on the campaign trail with Nigel Farage and Reform UK in South Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire today.

And it is looking pretty rosy for the party tonight, who inSky News' exclusive poll from YouGovare now just one point behind the Tories - on 17% and 18% respectively.

Speaking to Sophy Ridge from Ashfield in Notts - where Tory defector Lee Anderson is hoping to win back his seat for Reform - Sam says the Conservatives will be "nervous" while they await the public's response to their manifesto launch this morning.

He says Rishi Sunak has "handed in his homework", but while some say it is "too little, too late", he wonders if it is "too much".

"There are dozens and dozens of different policies targeting all sort of different groups," says Sam. "And he throws something at all of them.

"But the question is are people listening."

Our last post laid out the Tories' manifesto policies.

But do the party's sums add up when it comes to paying for them?

Sky economics and data editor Ed Conway has been going through the pledges - watch below to see if the proposed tax cuts and spending promises stack up.

As outlined previously, tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge will focus upon the Tories' election manifesto.

It was stuffed with plenty of policy - and we've scoured their pledges so you don't have to.

Scroll to the right in the interactive tool below to find out what the party has promised to do if they win the election.

We will produce a breakdown of all the other parties' manifestos here when they are announced - you can find the ones we've done so far in the key points above.

Today was one of Rishi Sunak's last chances to save his election campaign.

The launch of the Conservative Party manifesto - the day he revealed his policy platform and plans to change the country.

He's 20 points behind in the polls and needed a game changing moment.

From a pure policy perspective, there was a lot - from cuts to national insurance, including scrapping the main rate of self-employed national insurance completely, to building 1.6 million new homes.

And of course the introduction of national service.

Taken individually, these policies I'm sure poll well and are popular among the voters they're trying to win over.

But I can't work out what the story is - the narrative of the campaign.

Conservative campaign successes have included "levelling up", "get Brexit done", and even the austerity narrative that got David Cameron elected.

You'll have your own opinion about whether they were the right narratives or even if they were truthful, but they were cohesive stories about why people should vote for them.

It's a bit like Rishi Sunak is focusing too much on the maths, and not enough on the poetry, of the election.

Great campaigners are, at heart, great storytellers.

And I'm not sure what Rishi Sunak's story is yet.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Joining Sophy tonight is Tory cabinet ministerLucy Frazerto discuss her party's manifesto launch earlier today, and from Labour it's shadow chief Treasury secretaryDarren Jones.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Ash Sarkar, contributing editor at Novara Media;
• Guto Harri, Boris Johnson's former communications director.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Rishi Sunak has launched the Conservatives' manifesto, promising to slash taxes in a bid to revive the party's floundering campaign.

In his address at the home of the British Grand Prix, the prime minister pledged £17bn in tax cuts including lowering national insurance by 2p, scrapping it entirely for the self-employed and stopping state pensions being taxed with "triple lock plus" - which the party said would all be paid for with £12bn in cuts to the civil service and welfare.

But will it be enough to turn around the fortunes of the Conservatives?

Today on the Daily, Niall Paterson crunches the numbers with Sky's economics and data editor Ed Conway- and political communications strategist Jo Tanner unpicks what the Tories are trying to do with this manifesto.

Plus, Sky's political correspondent Darren McCaffrey on if it will shift the dial for the election.

Until voters go to the polls on 4 July, the Politics Hub will be looking back at some memorable moments from previous general election campaigns.

It's 1992 - and Labour's Neil Kinnock is facing John Major.

A week out from the vote, and the opposition thinks it is on track to finally re-enter Downing Street after more than a decade out of power.

Thousands of the party faithful gathered at Sheffield Arena for a huge rally.

Amid rampant cheering and applause, Mr Kinnock bellowed what was reported to be the phrase "we're alright!"

This was taken to be him signalling Labour would be winning - a sign of complacency and overconfidence.

His party went on to lose to Mr Major's Tories, and Mr Kinnock resigned as party leader.

He has since argued he was actually saying "well alright" in an attempt to get the crowd to listen to him.

Previous entry: The Ed Stone

Whether Conservatives judge the 2024 manifesto a success rather depends on their definition of success.

For some, it will be enough that Rishi Sunak hasn't exploded his campaign in quite the way Theresa May did with her pledge to impose extra taxes on people to pay for social care in 2017.

And some will be pleased that unlike Liz Truss, he has not sought to introduce unfunded tax cuts (even if there are a fair few question marks about how reliable his revenue numbers are).

But for anyone looking for a game-changing moment of economic bravery, this was not it.

The Conservatives are planning to cut taxes by £17.2bn. They also plan to increase spending by around £800m.

And they plan to pay for that by cutting welfare spending by £12bn and squeezing an extra £6bn out of tax avoiders.

There are some pretty big question marks over whether that money can be raised as easily as the manifesto implies.

There are also some other question marks buried deeper in the Tory manifesto. For instance, that relatively small spending increase is actually a net number, dependent on some pretty big spending cuts.

But broadly speaking, it's going too far to accuse this government of trying to inflict another Truss-style unfunded mini-budget on the UK.

This is significantly less radical than that. Indeed, the problem for many Conservatives is likely to be that it isn't radical enough.

As Rishi Sunak was winding up his manifesto launch at a metaphor-heavy Silverstone racetrack, the scale of the PM’s task in the remainder of the election campaign was becoming clear.

According to the exclusive Sky News/YouGov poll, he needs to shift through the gears pretty quickly, or he's in danger of dropping to the bottom rung of the podium.

He was speaking hours before it emerged voting intention for the Conservatives had dropped to 18%, one point ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK on 17% - tantalisingly close to a crossover.

A third of 2019 Tory voters - the cohort that endorsed Boris Johnson - now say they will switch to Reform.

And the proportion who think Mr Sunak will be a good PM is down two points to 22%, possibly down to his decision to leave D-Day early.

The drop in Labour's vote - three points to 38% - will do little to cheer a Tory party in the doldrums, consumed with their own existential angst.

This is because the switch seems to match the Lib Dems jumping four points to 15% - much of the YouGov fieldwork was done when their manifesto was receiving peak coverage.

The question is whether the Tory manifesto launch could possibly have provided anything new with which to turn things around from a position as dire as any in living memory.

Read more from Sam below: